By the numbers: the economy under Democratic and Republican presidents
Every president from Reagan to Trump, measured with official data: jobs, growth, stocks, recessions, debt and inflation.
From 1981 to 2025, Republicans held the White House for 24 years and Democrats for 20. On most measures below, the economy did better under Democratic presidents, a pattern economists have documented back to 1949. Whether presidents deserve the credit is a separate question, discussed at the bottom of this page. Party totals cover completed terms only; Trump's second term is shown separately as in progress.
Jobs added per year
Nonfarm payroll jobs, BLS
Real GDP growth per year
Inflation-adjusted, BEA
S&P 500 gain per year
Price only, excludes dividends
Months in recession
NBER dates; all 5 recessions began under Republicans
Change in debt as share of GDP
Total public debt / GDP, Treasury
Inflation per year
Consumer prices (CPI), BLS
Party totals, 1981–2025
Completed presidencies only. Rates are averages weighted by years in office.
| Measure | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Years in office (1981–2025) | 20 (3 presidents) | 24 (4 presidents) |
| Jobs added, total | +49.9M | +17.4M |
| Jobs added per year | +2.5M | +0.7M |
| Real GDP growth per year | 2.96% | 2.48% |
| S&P 500 gain per year | 13.94% | 5.16% |
| Inflation per year | 2.74% | 3.20% |
| Recessions that began | 0 | 5 |
| Months in recession | 6 | 46 |
| Change in unemployment rate (sum of terms) | -8.6 pts | +5.1 pts |
| Debt added (nominal dollars) | +$19.2T | +$16.1T |
| Debt added per year (nominal) | +$962B | +$669B |
| Change in debt-to-GDP ratio | +19.0 pts | +71.2 pts |
| Manufacturing jobs | +628,000 | -6,594,000 |
Jobs added
Change in nonfarm payroll employment from January of the first year in office to January after leaving. Trump's second term runs to August 2026.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Trump's first-term loss reflects the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020; before the pandemic, payrolls had grown by about 6.6 million. Biden's total includes jobs regained after the pandemic.
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| President | Period | Jobs added | Per year | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | Jan 1981 - Jan 1989 | +16.1M | +2.0M | 2.06% |
| George H.W. Bush | Jan 1989 - Jan 1993 | +2.6M | +0.7M | 0.61% |
| Bill Clinton | Jan 1993 - Jan 2001 | +22.9M | +2.9M | 2.40% |
| George W. Bush | Jan 2001 - Jan 2009 | +1.4M | +0.2M | 0.13% |
| Barack Obama | Jan 2009 - Jan 2017 | +11.5M | +1.4M | 1.04% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | Jan 2017 - Jan 2021 | −2.8M | −0.7M | −0.48% |
| Joe Biden | Jan 2021 - Jan 2025 | +15.4M | +3.9M | 2.59% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | Jan 2025 - Aug 2026 | +0.8M | +0.5M | 0.32% |
Economic growth
Average annual growth in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, from the quarter before taking office to the final full year.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
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| President | Period | Real GDP growth per year |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | Q4 1980 - Q4 1988 | 3.55% |
| George H.W. Bush | Q4 1988 - Q4 1992 | 2.21% |
| Bill Clinton | Q4 1992 - Q4 2000 | 3.80% |
| George W. Bush | Q4 2000 - Q4 2008 | 1.86% |
| Barack Obama | Q4 2008 - Q4 2016 | 1.99% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | Q4 2016 - Q4 2020 | 1.87% |
| Joe Biden | Q4 2020 - Q4 2024 | 3.26% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | Q4 2024 - Q2 2026 | 2.15% |
Stock market
Average annual gain in the S&P 500 from inauguration day to the successor's inauguration. Price change only; dividends would add roughly 2 points a year.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
George W. Bush's term spanned both the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.
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| President | S&P 500 at start | At end | Total change | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | 131.65 | 286.63 | +117.7% | +10.2% |
| George H.W. Bush | 286.63 | 433.37 | +51.2% | +10.9% |
| Bill Clinton | 433.37 | 1,342.54 | +209.8% | +15.2% |
| George W. Bush | 1,342.54 | 805.22 | −40.0% | −6.2% |
| Barack Obama | 805.22 | 2,271.31 | +182.1% | +13.8% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | 2,271.31 | 3,851.85 | +69.6% | +14.1% |
| Joe Biden | 3,851.85 | 5,996.66 | +55.7% | +11.7% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | 5,996.66 | 7,670.84 (Sept. 29, 2026) | +27.9% | +15.7% |
Unemployment rate, start to finish
Unemployment rate in the month each president took office (hollow dot) and in the month they left (solid dot).
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
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| President | When taking office | When leaving |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| George H.W. Bush | 5.4% | 7.3% |
| Bill Clinton | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| George W. Bush | 4.2% | 7.8% |
| Barack Obama | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| Joe Biden | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | 4.0% | 4.1% (Aug. 2026) |
Recessions
Every recession since 1981 as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles.
The 1981 recession was driven largely by the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates to break inflation, and the 2020 recession by the pandemic. Recessions often begin from conditions that built up under a predecessor.
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| Recession | Began under | Months |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 – Nov 1982 | Reagan (R) | 16 |
| Jul 1990 – Mar 1991 | George H.W. Bush (R) | 8 |
| Mar 2001 – Nov 2001 | George W. Bush (R) | 8 |
| Dec 2007 – Jun 2009 | George W. Bush (R); ended under Obama (D) | 18 |
| Feb 2020 – Apr 2020 | Trump (R) | 2 |
National debt added, in dollars
Increase in total public debt from the Dec. 31 before taking office to the Dec. 31 before leaving. Trump's second term runs to Sept. 29, 2026.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Dollar figures are not adjusted for inflation or the size of the economy, so recent presidents look larger by default. Reagan nearly tripled the debt (+188%); the next chart puts all terms on the same footing.
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| President | Debt at start | Debt at end | Added | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | $930B | $2.7T | +$1.8T | +189% |
| George H.W. Bush | $2.7T | $4.2T | +$1.5T | +56% |
| Bill Clinton | $4.2T | $5.7T | +$1.5T | +36% |
| George W. Bush | $5.7T | $10.7T | +$5.0T | +89% |
| Barack Obama | $10.7T | $20.0T | +$9.3T | +87% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | $20.0T | $27.7T | +$7.8T | +39% |
| Joe Biden | $27.7T | $36.2T | +$8.5T | +30% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | $36.2T | $40.1T | +$3.9T | +11% |
National debt as a share of the economy
Change in total public debt as a percentage of GDP over each presidency, in percentage points.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Obama's increase came mostly while the economy recovered from the 2008 financial crisis; Trump's first-term increase includes pandemic relief passed with bipartisan votes. Under Clinton the debt shrank relative to the economy, helped by budget deals with a Republican Congress and a strong economy.
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| President | Debt/GDP at start | At end | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | 31.2% | 49.7% | +18.5 pts |
| George H.W. Bush | 49.7% | 62.5% | +12.8 pts |
| Bill Clinton | 62.5% | 54.3% | −8.2 pts |
| George W. Bush | 54.3% | 73.2% | +18.9 pts |
| Barack Obama | 73.2% | 104.6% | +31.4 pts |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | 104.6% | 125.6% | +21.0 pts |
| Joe Biden | 125.6% | 121.4% | −4.2 pts |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | 121.4% | 122.6% | +1.2 pts |
Average annual budget deficit
Federal surplus or deficit as a share of GDP, averaged over the fiscal years each president's budgets covered (Trump's second term excluded; only fiscal 2025 is complete).
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Fiscal years start Oct. 1, so each president is assigned the years beginning after their first October in office. Fiscal 2009 (−9.8%) is counted under George W. Bush even though it includes early Obama stimulus.
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| President | Fiscal years | Average surplus (+) / deficit (−) |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | FY1982-FY1989 | −4.08% |
| George H.W. Bush | FY1990-FY1993 | −4.06% |
| Bill Clinton | FY1994-FY2001 | −0.12% |
| George W. Bush | FY2002-FY2009 | −3.29% |
| Barack Obama | FY2010-FY2017 | −4.91% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | FY2018-FY2021 | −8.63% |
| Joe Biden | FY2022-FY2025 | −5.83% |
Inflation
Average annual rise in consumer prices (CPI-U) from January of the first year to January after leaving.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Biden's term had the highest inflation in this period, driven by pandemic supply shocks, energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, and strong demand. Reagan took office with inflation near 12% a year and left with it around 4.5%.
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| President | Period | Inflation per year |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | Jan 1981 - Jan 1989 | 4.20% |
| George H.W. Bush | Jan 1989 - Jan 1993 | 4.19% |
| Bill Clinton | Jan 1993 - Jan 2001 | 2.62% |
| George W. Bush | Jan 2001 - Jan 2009 | 2.38% |
| Barack Obama | Jan 2009 - Jan 2017 | 1.76% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | Jan 2017 - Jan 2021 | 1.90% |
| Joe Biden | Jan 2021 - Jan 2025 | 4.97% |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | Jan 2025 - Aug 2026 | 2.98% |
Manufacturing jobs
Change in manufacturing employment over each presidency.
Democratic president Republican president Term in progress
Most of the 2000s losses came as China joined the World Trade Organization and automation spread, followed by the 2008 crisis.
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| President | Period | Manufacturing jobs change |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Reagan | Jan 1981 - Jan 1989 | -582,000 |
| George H.W. Bush | Jan 1989 - Jan 1993 | -1,267,000 |
| Bill Clinton | Jan 1993 - Jan 2001 | +315,000 |
| George W. Bush | Jan 2001 - Jan 2009 | -4,553,000 |
| Barack Obama | Jan 2009 - Jan 2017 | -218,000 |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | Jan 2017 - Jan 2021 | -192,000 |
| Joe Biden | Jan 2021 - Jan 2025 | +531,000 |
| Donald Trump (2nd term, to date) | Jan 2025 - Aug 2026 | -35,000 |
Read this before you share it
Presidents do not run the economy. Congress writes the budget, the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and global events such as oil shocks, wars and pandemics matter as much as anything in the White House. Policies also take time to work, so a president's record partly reflects a predecessor's decisions.
Timing matters too. Obama took office in the middle of the 2008 financial crisis, Trump's first term ended in the pandemic, and Biden's began with a rebound as the economy reopened. Clinton governed with a Republican Congress for six years, and Reagan with a Democratic House. With only eight presidencies, a single crisis can swing a party's average.
Economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson of Princeton found that the economy grew about 1.8 percentage points a year faster under Democrats from 1949 to 2013, a gap too large to be chance. But they concluded it was driven mostly by good luck, such as oil prices, productivity gains and consumer confidence, and not by Democratic fiscal or monetary policy. Writing for the American Institute for Economic Research, economist James Caton argues that institutions such as property rights and limits on government shape prosperity more than any one president can.
Two measurement notes: dollar figures for debt are not adjusted for inflation, which makes recent presidents look larger, so the page also shows debt as a share of GDP. And jobs and GDP figures are revised over time; these are the latest official values as of September 2026.
Sources and method
- Jobs, unemployment, manufacturing, inflation: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, series CES0000000001, LNS14000000, CES3000000001 and CPI-U (seasonally adjusted). Retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), which republishes BLS data unchanged. bls.gov
- Recessions: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. nber.org
- Debt: U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny and total public debt outstanding (quarterly), and debt as a share of GDP. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- Deficits and GDP: Office of Management and Budget and Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED (FYFSGDA188S, GDPC1). fred.stlouisfed.org
- Stocks: S&P 500 closing values on inauguration days (or the last trading day before), checked against FRED and Robert Shiller's monthly data. See also Macrotrends: S&P 500 performance by president.
- Research: Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson, Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration (NBER, 2014; American Economic Review, 2016). James L. Caton, Trump's Economy? (AIER, 2018).